Thucydides Trap – Challenges and Opportunities for Africa at the MISTRA CONFERENCE EXPLORING AFRICA'S ROLE IN GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS, By Minister Ronald Lamola

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Mr Joel Netshitenzhe (ExecutiveDirector – MISTRA);

Members of the Diplomatic Corps;

Representatives of Government;

Representatives of the ResearchCommunity, Academia, and Civil Society;

Distinguished guests;

Ladies and Gentlemen.

I extend my gratitude to the leadership of MISTRA for inviting us to be part of this strategic reflection.

The power of reflection is best revealed by an African proverb, “A reflection does not see itself.”

At the heart of this proverb is the idea that seeking an external perspective can reveal truths hidden from our self-perception.

Perhaps just as reflection requires an external surface to be seen, our perspective benefits from external viewpoints.

It is for the reason that here this morning to benefit from various viewpoints.

It is our intention to continue to reflect with the various institutes and thinktanks in our country on the implementation of our foreign policy, which is premised on our Constitution, National Interest document, and Foreign Services Act and statement of intent of the GNU.

We would be greatly enriched by the external perspectives institutes like these provide.

The theme of our discussion today requires us to go back in time.  The Thucydides work is proclaimed by scholars of history as an example of how history should be written.

Thucydides is also seen as someone who analyses the underlying thinking which underpins historical events.

The Melian dialogue, as written by Thucydides, is today the best exponent of this art form, although not entirely factual, it undoubtedly brings to the stage the fighting out of ideas.

These tools of analysis, which Thucydides brings to the fore, inform the shift in geopolitics and balances of forces today.

Just like the time that Thucydides writes about which is believed to be around 5 BC we are fronted with a strange paradigm in geopolitics:

A world of international anarchy.

A world where justice does not apply to those without military might and

A world where ethics or idealism have no room.

In two words this is world where “Might is Right". And”.And the weak cannot question the might.

Crisis and Change in Global Order

Considering how far back this discussion goes through Thucydides’ work, it is difficult to disagree with Antoni Gramsci's characterisation of a crisis.

“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.” – Antonio Gramsci

This world is in grievous interregnum, and transitioning to the new is that dangerous.

We are experiencing a proverbial "crisis moment” in world affairs, which could easily become a “moment of calamity”.

In this dangerous geopolitical moment, the champions of the liberal international order generally refuse to accept any notions of decline and would resist any attempt to emerge an alternative, least of all one from the Global South.

But that we have to go through this interregnum is beyond doubt.

South Africa’s election beckons hope for democracy; the manner and pace in which the Government of National Unity was formed are model for democracy worldwide.

There comes a time when it is not absolute power that defines us but our collective ability to resolve our challenges and build a foundation of new frontiers for future generations,

In global politics, we are now witnessing the making of a post-Cold War, with all the hallmarks that it could become an unimaginable hot war, with the Middle East as its centre point. Turbulence, Anarchy and Combustion are the order of the day.

Geopolitical rivalries between great powers that obsess with realpolitik and aggressive economic competitiveness, together with adversarial foreign policies and combative diplomacy, are factors driving this global crisis moment.  

Challenges to the Contemporary Global Order

Those who gave us the multilateral order, including strategic pillars such as the Bretton Woods Institutions, the United Nations, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, are now at the forefront of undermining them.

Just for one second, imagine what the action the world would be if an African state declared the United Nations Secretary-General a persona non grata like Israel did.

Big Powers and Competitive Geo-politics

The Russia-Ukraine war, the genocide against Palestinians, trade wars that result in greater challenges in the global economy, and wars raging in Africa, with our continent becoming the Théâtre for proxy battles, all point to this moment of deep global crisis.

The toll of geopolitical rivalry on people's suffering is serious. This is most evident in Sudan, where the conflict has created a humanitarian catastrophe unlike any other.

While the media's glare is on the Russia-Ukraine war, the genocide in Palestine, the conflict in Sudan, the war in the eastern DRC, and conflicts in the Sahel are as good as footnotes.

We must take up our responsibility as Africans to help end these wars.

We should work with external and international friends who act bona fide to end the war; admittedly, thesis not easy.

The presence of unconventional participants on both sides, including mercenaries, foreign volunteers, special forces, and paramilitary squads, has made Africa a place for proxy wars.

It is easier to fund wars than to fund development. War’s geopolitical character also involves economic, financial, and cyber warfare, as well as artificial intelligence, which has become “weaponised” and used on a massive scale.

What went wrong? The post-COVID, pre-Russia-Ukraine represented a real optimistic moment.

Ironically, the pre-Russia-Ukraine war and immediate pre-Covid global landscapes were accompanied by some hope for progressive internationalism and enhanced international cooperation.

We hoped that Africa would become a greater priority and was looking forward to the world community's search for new modalities to address post-pandemic recovery.

Alas, it was not to be, and optimism was quickly replaced by pessimism and outright alarm. Interdependence is now marked by competition and tension.

Rising military tensions, disruptive trade and commercial relations, growing protectionism and right-wing populism, grave environmental degradation, the abuse of hard and soft forms of cyber power, and increasing levels of bigotry, racism, and tribalism are replacing the gaps and vacuums left in the wake of these rivalries.

The Middle East crisis is becoming a proverbial shift in the global balance of power in front of our very eyes.

What started off as plausible evidenceof “genocide against the people of  Palestine” is now transforming into areal regional war that will have long-lasting ramifications for global peaceand the economy and Africa in particular.  

Those who have criticised South Africafor its decisions to take Israel to the ICJ and join in actions in the ICC arenow coming around one year later to agree with us on the warnings we have signalled.

This shows that it was only that thewrong people from the global south raised the alarm. Had it been some from theglobal north, they may have well been a different reaction.

BRICS: a real value adding to global development

The emergence of BRICS and BRICS+ is real. Differences amongst BRICS members notwithstanding, BRICS is determined to play this counter-balancing role for the development of the global south.

After the 2023 expansion, especially tomembers from the MENA region, BRICS is a real force to be reckoned with.

We will ensure that it does not takeits eyes off the peaceful settlement of disputes, the transformation of globalmultilateral institutions, development finance, and the agitation for amore equitable global order.

The erosion of multilateralism

A fundamental feature of contemporary global order is the erosion of multilateralism, notably the UN, and the multiplying weaknesses of its institutionalised mechanisms. Established norms of global governance are also being corroded and eroded.

Multilateral cooperation and adherence to international law will move us away from the Hobbesian-like world and its zero-sum politics. Supporting and championing the Pact of the Future is about the survival of multilateralism. It is in our interest to do so if we are to pursue a just global order.

Empty Promises defer development and reform.

The two-decade impasse of the Doha Development Round in the World Trade Organization has damaged the promise of deeper integration of developing countries into the global trading system.

The failure to reform the UN Security Council and strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as the unilateral withdrawals from the Paris Agreement, all point to a weakening global society and order. Empty promises defer development and reform.

The G20

As you may already know, South Africa will assume the G20 presidency from Brazil in December. President Ramaphosa has announced that the theme of our Presidency will be "solidarity, cooperation, and sustainable development."

We believe that this will be a significant moment in our young democracy. After the World Cup and the collective fight we mounted as a nation against COVID-19, it will be our biggest national project.

We plan to prioritise discussions on the Just Energy Transition, Financing for Development, transforming global financial structures, infrastructure development, and other important issues, such as artificial intelligence, food security, and the debt trap.

We have to reverse the uneven distribution of resources for just transition. It is inconceivable that Africa receives less than 3 per cent of the global climate change financing while being the most affected continent. We will advocate for more resources to be allocated to Africa for climate change.

Opportunities for Africa

It's important to remember that despite the challenges, there is hope for positive change.

The impact of Geo-political rivalries and wars extends beyond sanctions and disruptions to supply chains, but African countries have the opportunity to reclaim their agency in world affairs.

By insisting on genuine partnerships and aligning agreements with regional groupings and continental programs, Africa can define its engagement with major global powers.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity to increase intra-African trade, which is currently at 17%, and foster economic growth.

Africa has great potential to shape its own future and create a more prosperous and interconnected continent.

As we choose to industrialise and re-industrialise our economies on the continent, we must bear in mind that we are the ones who can give their world a more human face, as per Steve Bikos's injunction.

One of the most raging debates that Africa will soon have to lead is the issue of critical minerals. This is a critical debate for our future. Our natural resources cannot longer be extracted in a manner that does not benefit us. Africa cannot remain an extractive site. Our generation must change this.

Conclusion

The looming spectre of geopolitical rivalries and wars casts a dark shadow over the people of Africa and the Southand, indeed, the entire world.

The relentless march of inequality, violence, division, and disillusionment is creating an apocalyptic and tragic reality for the people of Africa, plunging them into a dystopian and hopeless existence.

As Africans, it is our noble duty to wholeheartedly recommit ourselves to fostering unwavering unity within our continent. Our voices must harmonize into one resounding call for progress and prosperity.

We must wholeheartedly embrace the concept of "African solutions for African problems" as the guiding principle of our collective journey towards a brighter future.

Simultaneously, we must approach the global community with a spirit of genuine partnership and unwavering accountability, fostering a world where mutual respect and cooperation reign supreme.

I thank you.

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